Ladies and gentlemen,
Thank you to the Schuman Foundation and Sciences-Po for inviting me today.
20 years ago this week, Estonia joined the EU, a month after we had become a member of NATO.
The road to this point was long. We started our journey to the EU and NATO as soon as we emerged from Soviet Russia’s prison in 1991 because we decided we would be Never Alone Again – never without friends, never without allies.
In the early morning of the 1st of May 2004, people gathered by Estonia’s parliament building to sing an “Ode to Joy”. International media who came to cover Estonia’s accession celebrations later reported how Estonians seemed to join the EU without a big fuss over it – after the short ceremony, those present went to the forest to plant a million trees as part of a community action. A quick celebration, then back to work.
It is a fitting parallel for how Estonia has approached its membership ever since. While we have always valued the EU as one of the pillars of our prosperity and security, we knew we had not joined a ready-made organisation. We knew that joining the Union does not just mean sharing in the benefits, it also means sharing in the responsibilities.
For the past 20 years we have been active members doing our part to shape the EU’s development – from ensuring a genuinely single market to boosting the EU’s digital and cyber credentials to strengthening our defence readiness.
Our example also shows that enlargement pays dividends. Estonia together with many other Central and Eastern European countries set an amazing example of this.
As a reminder, let me illustrate our journey with a few figures. In 1993, our GDP was about 1,4 billion euros. 30 years later, in 2023, our nominal GDP was 27 times higher – about 37 billion euros. During this same period, average wages in Estonia also grew 27 times, while the average pension grew even more by 32 times.
Estonia’s citizens have seen how the EU delivers first-hand, and the numbers show it. In 2003, 67% of Estonians supported the referendum to join the EU. Today, support for Estonia’s membership among our residents is at a historic high – 84%.
EU enlargement has been the world’s greatest economic convergence machine, driving newcomers to become high-income economies. And an enlarged EU does not just deliver to new members. In the last 20 years, the EU’s GDP has doubled – from 8,7 trillion euros in 2003 to around 17 trillion in 2023. The EU is delivering to its citizens some of the highest living standards and the lowest levels of income inequality in the world.
Dear friends,
Despite this, many of the arguments and fears regarding enlargement during our accession journey are also used today. I recall that when we set out to join the EU, not everyone was enthusiastic. While we were hard at work doing our homework internally, a huge part of our efforts was focused outside. We had to explain again and again what Estonia is and what makes us European.
Europe is an unfinished project as long as there are nations that share our heritage, believe in the rule of law and democracy, and want to be part of our Union. And as long as there are grey zones of security in Europe.
The historian Timothy Garton Ash has described how „a politically interested Snow White who went to sleep on New Year’s Day 1989 and woke up on New Year’s Day 2007 would have rubbed her eyes in disbelief“ because Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania together with other Central and Eastern European countries were now in the EU.
To me, it is a reminder that the European project has always been about making the seemingly unimaginable possible – like seeing the rubble of the Second World War and building prosperity and cooperation out of it. And it also visualises the goal – that one day soon we will wake up in an EU that counts Ukraine, Moldova and other candidate countries among its members.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Enlargement is a political decision first and foremost. It is about whether Europe is serious about being a geopolitical actor and whether Europe can deliver on its promises. When countries have done their homework, they also deserve to progress on their path to the EU.
Already during our accession there were voices that called to reform the Union first and only then to enlarge it. While internal preparations for the next enlargement are necessary, they cannot become an excuse to slow down enlargement. Both processes can take place in parallel.
On the one hand, we should use this as an opportunity to take a good look at what the EU does together and why, and how we can make it even better in an enlarged Union. It is clear from geopolitical, technological, and planetary challenges that our enlarged Union will have to become stronger, more free, more connected, and more united together. This has to be the main driver of our future reforms, to use our collective imagination for a better future.
On the other hand, we should continue to do everything we can to support candidate states. Enhancing economic integration could be a good way to go – for example, when a candidate state fulfils the conditions, they could gradually be allowed access to the single market. This would result in faster convergence and therefore faster benefits for everyone.
Ladies and gentlemen,
Being able to imagine a stronger, enlarged Europe is also a question of security for all of us. For sustainable peace in Europe, we need to end the grey zones of security in Europe.
I would like to recall the very beginning of the Schuman declaration. I quote: „World peace cannot be safeguarded without the making of creative efforts proportionate to the dangers which threaten it.” End of quote.
Robert Schuman’s words 74 years ago also ring true today. Europe is facing a critical moment in its history. Russia has brought full-scale genocidal war back to European soil. For the third year, Ukrainians are defending not only their sovereignty and freedom, including the freedom to choose their European future, but also the freedom of everyone else in Europe.
This is our joint struggle for freedom – except that Ukrainians are the only ones fighting on the battlefield, paying with their lives. If aggression is stopped by Ukrainians, then no one else has to fight.
We must understand the threat – really understand it – to make the efforts proportionate to the danger. We should all listen to President Macron’s important warning from last week that our Europe is mortal and whether it dies depends only on our own choices. As also Ursula von der Leyen recently argued – if Russia won, it would change the course of European history and our Union would never be the same.
However, I still worry that there is still too much complacency. The goal – Ukraine’s victory – is also about the future of Europe. Yet some are even afraid to spell out the words “Russia’s defeat” – in fact, they try to convince others that Russia can never be beaten. Well, history says otherwise. For instance, Russia did not win the Russo-Japanese war; in Afghanistan, it pulled out when it realized it had made a mistake; it lost the Cold War. Also in our War of Independence from 1918 to 1920, Estonians fought against the Russians and won.
Let’s accept that history is calling on us to make bold decisions. Everything we do now will have real-life implications for all of us tomorrow. Russia is holding every single person in Ukraine at gunpoint – every day and every night. This could someday be the fate of the rest of Europe. Or it could not, if we choose to act and avoid it.
We know what Ukraine needs to defend themselves. They have asked for air defence systems and capabilities. We should deliver them to Ukraine, urgently. We must also continue putting pressure on Russia on the international arena, be it economically or politically. Strengthening sanctions is one important way. I am also glad there are movements within the G7 and the EU on how to use Russia’s frozen assets for Ukraine – this is not only strategically but also morally and legally the right thing to do.
Dear listeners,
Schuman’s words should also remind us that peace is not about letting aggressors off the hook – quite the opposite. I do not know anyone in Ukraine who is "for war." The people I know are for their freedom, for self-defence, for living their lives peacefully. They want the war to end.
But they also remember the history of half of Europe after World War II – those forgotten behind the Iron Curtain for half a century. They remember how in the territories occupied by Soviet Russia, peace did not mean the end of suffering but more of it. Instead, it meant mass killings, mass deportations, erasing language and culture.
There was no justice for victims of Soviet Russia’s terror after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russian crimes in Ukraine make it brutally clear why accountability matters – unless unpunished, it continues over and over again. This time Ukrainians are the victims of Russian crimes, tomorrow it might be someone else. That is why we must make a strong case on accountability now. Like Pope John Paul the Second has said – and I quote: “If you want peace, work for justice”. End of quote.
This is all the more important because today’s Russia’s long-term interest is the very opposite of peace. It has not changed any of its goals – it wants to overturn the European security architecture. In Russia’s vision for security, it is acceptable to conquer and colonize another country. For Russia, the hope of a peace is a trap – to distract countries from giving Ukraine the aid it needs at a sufficient scale to win.
If we spend more time telling the aggressor what we won’t do rather than what we will do, it does nothing to hold them back – they only take it as a sign of weakness.
If we fail to push back the aggressor on European soil, it also speaks volumes to Europe’s credibility globally, at a time when conflict and tensions in other regions also run high.
If we let aggression pay off even just a bit and override territorial integrity and other core pillars of the UN Charter, stability and peace will not return to Europe. It would only give Russia more time to rebuild itself and attack again.
Ladies and gentlemen,
The security environment in Europe has seriously deteriorated. Looking ahead to the next European electoral term, the state of European defence is one of the greatest strategic challenges ahead of us. As such, it also requires strategic actions.
It is high time we do not just talk about our values but really put them in practice. And do what is necessary to defend them. Together with our transatlantic allies, Europe needs to establish a new, permanent state of defence readiness that will far outlast the war in Ukraine.
First, this means a higher overall government spending on defence. In NATO, 2% is the agreed minimum, but not all allies are doing this. Some, including Estonia, are spending more than 3% or even 4%. To meet the demands of the new security reality, more is required from everyone. Not only those countries sharing their border with Russia.
Second, Europe has entered the period of Great Awakening about the state of its defence industrial base. It is widely recognised that we need to ramp up our industrial capacity – not only for Ukraine but also for ourselves. The first ever European Defence Industrial Strategy provides the necessary foundation for a crucial step change.
But we are still stuck in a chicken-and-egg situation. Governments expect greater investment and risk-taking from industry, to be able to order more. Manufacturers are expecting long-term visibility and contracts from governments before making capital investments into expanding production. But both need to take initiative and do more.
Third, the EU needs to dedicate a higher share of its own 7-year budget to defence. The current level, 0.86%, is simply not enough. The new security reality is here to stay, and our actions must correspond. And we need to think about other creative ways to kick-start European defence.
For example, using defence-bonds – similarly to what we did during the Covid-19 crisis – to give an urgent response to a situation where days and months matter. Because the time may be over sooner than we think. Here I would like to thank President Macron for his vocal support to this idea. It is important we keep up the momentum on this.
Fifth, while Europe gets its act together, the foundation of our collective security remains our transatlantic alliance – this is where all the practical knowledge, planning and capabilities for our defence lies.
Dear friends,
The road ahead will not be easy. Our adversaries will of course not be standing still – they will be seeking any opportunity to fuel tensions in our societies. We are seeing signs across Europe and beyond that Russia is intensifying its so-called shadow war against our societies. It has become increasingly clear that the frontline runs through the hearts of our own democracies: universities, parliaments, media and other institutions. The Kremlin’s disinformation is reaching wide audiences via social media. More and more hybrid operations by the Russian secret services are coming to light.
We need to make sure that the European Union does not speak only to the head but also to the heart. We need to continue delivering to our citizens and preparing them for the future ahead.
As former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves has said – and I quote: „If, we do not rise up to these challenges, future generations will look back at us and say we failed, that we squandered our European inheritance, and ask why we did so little when so much was at stake.“ End of quote.
Thank you!
