There is no sign that the Kremlin has changed its calculus, although from the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, it has failed to achieve its strategic goals – in fact much of the opposite has happened:
- Ukraine has proved to the world it can win this war, with the transatlantic family strongly next to it.
- The Kremlin, instead of dividing the European Union, has encouraged the EU to become a geopolitical actor. EU enlargement has had new life breathed into it – and Ukraine is a candidate country.
It all has reminded me of a saying by Estonia´s former President Lennart Meri: “Europe is not geography. Europe is a unity of principles and loyalty to these principles. Principles shape geography – geography does not shape principles.” End of quote. This is a reality that Putin has never understood. This is the reality he is trying to change.
- Russia tried to blackmail NATO away from its neighbourhood. The outcome was the opposite. With Finland in NATO, Russia´s border with NATO has doubled. The Nordics' long tradition of military non-alignment has ended with Sweden with one foot in NATO. Danes voted at a referendum for closer security integration with EU – ending Denmark´s EU opt-out from security and defence policy.
These are decisions driven by historic and sharp shifts in public opinion. These are decisions by the people, we have witnessed democracy in action in its truest form.
But these democracies also need to be protected and cared for.
Throughout history, democracy has always been under attack, history has seen authoritarians destroy democracies, often by destroying individual rights and excusing it with „protecting" national security or economy. Even in established democracies, there can be elected leaders who erode the balance of power and democratic institutions. This way, democracies can die slowly from within.
For the Kremlin, democratic governance in Europe is a threat that it tries to destroy. It sees liberal democracy as its biggest enemy.
Much of the free world is now inevitably focused on conventional war against Ukraine, and rightly so. The aggressor must be defeated on the battlefield, but Russia is also waging a war against our democracies – an energy war, an information war, a cyberwar. Democracies need to take steps to defend themselves in all these areas, as well as holding the line to defend a world where rules still apply, and where technology works for, not against, democratic societies.
We in Estonia, at the front line of democracy, have long been aware of Russia’s hybrid tactics. Many of their tactics are taken straight from the KGB playbook. They try to influence political and social choices and undermine trust within free societies. And not only within, but also between our societies – one of Russia’s long-term goals is also to undermine unity between Allies.
In light of all this, what should democratic nations do? There will be important elections in quite a few democracies in the near future, so countries must be extra vigilant against any potential threats. The most important thing is to be aware and prepared – part of it is discussing these issues openly.
In the field of cyber security, we must all be prepared for cyber-warfare to continue even after the conventional war ends in Ukraine, and to invest appropriately. We need to have a well-protected digital infrastructure in place and here Ukraine has lessons to teach us all - its digital backbone has enabled the state to keep delivering services online during the war. Many Russian cyber-attacks have failed because Ukraine had spent years in preparing for it.
Ladies and Gentelmen,
This all illustrates that Russian colonialism, its war against Ukraine is also about the possibility of a democratic future.
The title of our discussion is Ukraine's Path to Victory – so how to end this war, what are the conditions for victory and for peace in Europe that lasts?
My answer in short: the faster Putin understands he has made a mistake, he will not reach his objectives and won´t be able to break Ukrainians, the sooner this war ends.
The longer answer: for victory there are several conditions and policies we need to pursue.
First, for victory, freedom must be armed better than tyranny. This is the call by President Zelenskyy and this should be also our motto. It means that the number one focus should be arms, ammunition and training – they all must continue at a scale sufficient for Ukraine to win the war.
However, it is not only the battlefield success that will decide the outcome of the war. We have to show Kremlin it cannot outlast Ukraine and the free world economically. So, Ukraine´s win also depends on our ability to dry up the Kremlin´s income to finance its aggression.
And we need to believe in Ukraine – this is an important precondition for any help and assistance needed for actual victory.
For peace that lasts in Europe we need accountability. Without accountability, Russia´s cycle of violence will never stop.
First, on political accountability. The Russian political elite has learned over the decades that Russia will not be held accountable. In the free world, principles were exchanged for cash, truth for gas. The Kremlin learned that there are always people in democracies who advocate for their cause. They have been strategic in planting political and economic corruption within democratic institutions and leaders. They have been smart in creating economic dependencies that serve the Kremlin´s military interests. And the aggressor's confidence grew.
We also need judicial accountability. Without accountability, Russia´s cycle of violence will never stop. The arrest warrants issued against Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova by the International Criminal Court are strong statements that all atrocities against Ukraine stem from the criminal policy of Russian leaders.
But it´s not just Putin´s war. The Russian people also have responsibility – as long as territorial expansion is considered a virtue in Russia, and human lives lost are its acceptable side-effects, Russia´s aggression will sooner or later return and there can be no lasting peace in Europe.
Recognizing national guilt and taking personal responsibility for it is the basis for a society to have a future. It is also a basis for breaking Russia´s cycle of violence and aggression.
We all are reading Russian history these days. Reading for trying to make sense of its crimes and rationale of its killing machine.
Russian writer Mihhail Šiškin gives his explanation and I quote: “in Russia, there has been no real de-Stalinization, acceptance of guilt in relation to the past crimes committed. /…/There have been no Nuremberg trials of the Communist Party. Without regret and acceptance of national guilt, a democratic new beginning in Russia is not possible."
Hence, no impunity for war crimes must remain a cornerstone of our long-term policies. No-one is immune, not even the sitting head of the permanent member state of the UN Security Council.
Until that´s not the case, we should prepare for the worst. Stopping aggressor has its cost. Life next to a pariah state has a cost. Hence, we need to strengthen our own defence and security and adapt accordingly – we in NATO need to undergo changes in our planning, in our defence budgets and capabilities. Peace and stability of Europe is secured by the geopolitical European Union and by NATO that is able to defend Europe militarily.
We also need to end grey zones in Europe. Grey zones fuel conflicts and invite dictators to invade. It has become clear that for peace in Europe, we need Ukraine in NATO and EU. Even Mr. Kissinger has changed his opinion and I quote: “Before this war I was opposed to the membership of Ukraine in NATO because I feared it would start exactly the process we are seeing now, but now, the idea of a neutral Ukraine in these conditions is no longer meaningful.”
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Our international approach to Russia must remain firm and long-term. We should not believe in the goodwill of an outright aggressor and a cold-blooded war criminal. There should be no interpreting of Russia via a democratic lens. There should be no room for wishful thinking. Russia is a pariah state that needs to be isolated, there´s no room for appeasement and forgiveness, no flirtation with business as usual and lifting sanctions. Half-baked solutions are dangerous. Our joint pressure against Russia must increase, not decrease.
It is true we all want this aggression to stop, but stopping aggression temporarily will only postpone next ones. Leaders have a key role in explaining it to their home audiences. And hereby I don´t mean only political leaders. I speak of all those who are able to influence and shape public opinion by their views, their words and their action.
We all carry responsibility. Responsibility to make sure that democratic values form the basis of our world order. Responsibility to explain to our home audiences what is globally at stake in Ukraine – why we need to increase pressure on Russia and continue with long-term military assistance to Ukraine. We have a responsibility to explain how Ukraine´s fight for its existence is also a fight for freedom and dignity in Europe. And how Russia´s aggression inevitably carries a cost to our own societies – but cost we pay in euros, and Ukrainians in blood.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
All these strands of work need to continue for the long term. We must not raise false expectations and false hopes, and not feed wishful thinking as if we´d live through a bad dream that will end overnight.
In conclusion, our primary focus should be on making sure that aggression ends in defeat and that we are prepared to deter or stop its continuation or expansion in the future. Any “negotiated pause” serves Kremlin´s interest so it can use the time to rebuild and prepare its forces for future aggression.
For Ukraine´s victory we need courage which means also the courage to take risks. “The secret to happiness is freedom… and the secret to freedom is courage” – as said by Thucydides and demonstrated by Ukrainians.
